A few months ago, John McCain was being declared an ex-candidate. Not so much anymore. ARG (The American Research Group, one of my less-favorite pollsters) came out with a result that confirms some stuff from Rasmussen. Now, a bit of a disclaimer: Rasmussen yields funny results, and so does ARG…but usually when those two are yielding funny results, they’re in opposite directions (Examples: ARG favoring Guliani back in the spring; Rasmussen favoring Huckabee at Guliani’s expense these days). This time, they’re both agreeing on a major bump in Iowa and New Hampshire for John McCain…which has yet to get independent confirmation.
Now, with that said, the Iowa result is exclusive to these two: Ignoring the Quad City Times result as out-of-date, McCain has only showed support over 9% twice: ARG’s 20% and Rasmussen’s 14%. And a poll conducted by Strategic Vision (the GOP-run pollster) at virtually the same time as the Rasmussen poll showed McCain at 8% and Thompson at 16%, while another poll inside of this timeframe by CNN showed both McCain and Thompson at 9%. For reference, Rasmussen and ARG showed Thompson at 8 and 5, respectively. To be perfectly honest, the Iowa results are enough of a jumble that I’m reserving judgment on the polls there. If McCain -does- come in third there, however, that will be an upset in light of his lack of campaigning there (and especially in light of his lousy showing there in 2000, where he got a whopping 5% of the vote…probably his single worst showing of the 2000 season, as well as the only time he came in fifth during that campaign…mainly because he simply didn’t try there).
New Hampshire, on the other hand, has two polls showing a big McCain boost (a McSurge, as it’s being called…which sounds suspiciously like something I’d get at McDonalds alongside an order of McNuggets) and none contradicting them…mainly because nobody else has issued a poll here. Also, the results here are only netting a slight shift when compared to Iowa: All of the McCain polls in the last week are within a 5-point range of eachother (22-27), while the only candidate to face a major outlier Romney, who falters in the ARG poll…just as he’s surging nationally. Here, again, I’m inclined to believe Rasmussen over ARG, as Rasmussen’s conclusion that McCain is closely trailing Romney versus ARG’s tied result just makes a bit more sense.
Ultimately, I do believe that McCain has popped up a good bit in the polls…I just don’t believe that the surge is that big yet. The sudden string of endorsements he recieved over the last few days has helped him out a lot, and I believe that it is reasonable to say that his campaign is coming back strong…even if I don’t believe that he’s in a de facto three-way tie (with Huckabee and Guliani) for the lead.
One interesting thing is Rudy Guliani’s continued trouble in about five different places. Nationally, he’s now in a dogfight with just about everyone else for the lead, depending on which polls you believe; in Iowa, his polling average has gone from third place to fifth place (with one poll even putting him in sixth) and peeled off from the mid-teens to the upper single digits; while in New Hampshire, he’s at least doing something that resembles holding his ground: His average isn’t collapsing there, and though Rasmussen only gave him 13% there…Rasmussen is also the same company that’s giving him 13% nationally while nobody else is giving him less than 20%.
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Update: A new poll came out in NH from the USA Today/Gallup. It shows McCain at the 26/27 level that Rasmussen and ARG recorded, but shows Romney at 34. I’ll buy these results, since they make more sense if for no other reason. So if I had to guess, ARG just pulled two bad polls (which is about par for the course for them) and needs to be ignored until they refine their methodology some more.
Tags: Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Polls, Republican Primary, Rudy Guliani
