One poll does not a pattern make. However, when as many as three polls are coming out every day in Iowa, and the pace is similarly fast for New Hampshire and South Carolina (Michigan avoiding this fate largely because of the Democratic boycott), it’s fair to say that you can get at least a decent snapshot of the race at any given moment.
Even more amazing is the deluge of national polls. There, we’ve had five polls this week (since Monday), not counting the daily Rasmussen tracking poll. They’re all saying variations of the same thing…but those variations are both interesting and important. Let’s go over what they’re collectively saying:
-Huckabee recorded his first non-Rasmussen lead. However, he did this in an out-of-date poll (seven days on a non-refrigerated shelf kills milk and polling data in this race; when this one came out, there were 4 more recent polls and one simultaneous one out already). He also managed to show up in third for the first time in a while, which is also worth noting.
-Mitt Romney has now tied for the lead in at least one poll. More importantly, this poll also bounced Huckabee into third as a result, and Romney tied with Rudy.
-Rudy Guliani, with the exception of Rasmussen and the Battleground poll, is keeping Huckabee out of the lead. In some ways, this is a psychological win for Rudy; crashing into second (or, heaven forbid, third) overall would probably cause the wheels on his campaign to come flying off.
-John McCain’s national revival seems to be going well. With one odd exception, he’s pulling at least 10% everywhere, and only one other poll puts him under 12.
-And Fred Thompson can at least brag about having apparently bounced off of the 10% mark and come back just a tad. To paraphrase Monty Python, “He’s not dead yet!”
Iowa and New Hampshire are revealing major jumbles:
-In Iowa, Huckabee is no longer the absolute frontrunner, but he mantains a distinct edge. The situation further down the pack, in the meantime, is an absurd four-way tie for third, as John McCain, Rudy Guliani, Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul fight over that position. Thompson can still claim an edge for that coveted slot, but it’s very nominal; in an ironic twist, Rudy may be in third..or fourth…or fifth…or sixth.
-New Hampshire at least has a bit of order to its polling. With one exception, all the polls are Romney-McCain-Guliani-Huckabee-Paul-Thompson. The only oddball simply swaps McCain and Guliani, but by an insignificant margin. However, even here there’s a bit of a problem: McCain seems to be edging up on Romney (Joe Lieberman’s endorsement seems to be helping…not to mention two big NH papers). And even more important than the poll order here alone is the nature of the overall jumble.
Taken together, this is a recipie for chaos. As I said earlier, everybody but Romney is set to take at least one embarassing lump. Thompson -will- take it in New Hampshire, where it is safe to say he will not come in better than fifth, and he might even manage to come in seventh or eighth. Huckabee is in a similarly bad situation in New Hampshire; a win in Iowa followed by a fourth place in NH is what one would call a mixed bag, though if he effectively skips NH after IA, that might well be avoided. By contrast, McCain would seem to be headed for his embarassment in Iowa…though if the bump he’s seeing holds, that might not be the case. If he manages third in Iowa, that’s effectively a win since he’d be edging out both Rudy and Thompson, who have put far more time, energy, and money (or at least time and money in Thompson’s case; he doesn’t seem to have much energy to spend anywhere).
Rudy, in the meantime, is headed for double embarassments (a possible fifth or sixth place in IA and a third in NH do not make for a good time), while Romney may get some pie in his face in either place: Second in IA is survivable (if irritating), but second in NH probably isn’t.
Who’s the winner of all this confusion at the moment? Ron Paul, who may have the pleasure of upstaging as much as half the field in IA and NH if this keeps up, is gaining from the confusion (even a fourth place in IA can turn into a “win” under the right conditions), but John McCain isn’t doing too badly, either, and his campaign seems to have upward momentum, while Romney is coming through the chaos in one piece. The losers? Huckabee, who’s now stalled, Rudy, who’s suddenly stuck in with the field he was leading for nearly a year, and Fred Thompson, who might well be out after Iowa if this keeps up…and even if he survives there, might suffer even more humiliation in New Hampshire if Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, or even one of the perennial candidates manage to outrun him in the results.
Tags: Fred Thompson, Iowa, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Polls, Republican Primary, Ron Paul, Rudy Guliani
