For the last few weeks, we’ve been treated to a rather big show as the -third- significant underdog in the GOP race to make a surge did so. First there was Thompson, who was in second place without actually getting in. Then there was Mitt Romney, who bounced into third on the heels of a win in the Ames Straw Poll. Then there was Thompson again, who finally got in, came within a few inches of the lead (Rasmussen gave him a lead in his tracking poll, but I don’t buy that…he was close, but he wasn’t quite there). Then Fred fizzled a few weeks after getting as his campaign was so laid back he was almost falling out of his chair in the process (a few debate performances helped, but not enough to have him any better than fifth in many polls now…or in the RCP average, which is something akin to the S&P 500 for polls). Thompson held onto second place for most of the fall, but in the end he faltered as well, dropping down to about where he was back in the spring when his name first started circulating.
Huckabee managed an impressive surge in the last few weeks. Up until Thanksgiving, he was looking like the fourth candidate to pile onto the ‘tied for second’ bandwagon: Reaching 10% in the polls, he was making for a messy tie, and he looked pretty good to pulling-their-hair-out conservatives. He shot off, running from 10% in the RCP average to over 20%, took leads in IA, SC, and (apparently) FL, and looked like he might be able to at least get into a straight fight with Rudy, if not take the nomination outright.
It’s probably telling that he’s in third in the electronic markets despite being in second in the polls. His run-up in IA pumped his expectations up; suddenly, instead of a close second in IA being good, he’s gotta win it, and probably win it pretty big, to avoid disappointing. Ultimately, a bunch of baggage caught up with him; presumably it was on a trip to Abu Dhabi along with Nermal (for those of you who like Garfield) and only now got cleared through airport security.
Right now, he’s probably wishing that it had been impounded, but the Paulists (ie Ron Paul supporters) saw to it that it wouldn’t be, airing the dirty laundry starting in early December (my first exposure to it came at the Republican Advance in VA). So he’s stalled, and polls which at one point were showing him up by as much as 22 points in IA are now cooling off.
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So, let’s apply the three principles I outlined in my last post to the Iowa polls of the last few weeks. From Real Clear Politics, we have the following in IA, courtesy of Real Clear Politics:
| Poll | Date | Huckabee | Romney | Thompson | Giuliani | McCain | Paul | Spread |
| RCP Average | 12/07 – 12/17 | 32.2 | 24.2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 5.8 | Huckabee +8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 12/16 – 12/17 | 25 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 6 | Romney +3.0 |
| Quad City Times | 12/10 – 12/13 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | Huckabee +9.0 |
| Hotline/FD | 12/07 – 12/12 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 5 | Huckabee +13.0 |
| Rasmussen | 12/10 – 12/10 | 39 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | Huckabee +16.0 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 12/08 – 12/10 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | Huckabee +5.0 |
| Newsweek | 12/05 – 12/06 | 39 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 8 | Huckabee +22.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | 12/03 – 12/06 | 32 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 2 | Huckabee +12.0 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 11/30 – 12/02 | 27 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 5 | Huckabee +3.0 |
| Zogby | 11/29 – 12/01 | 25 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 5 | Romney +1.0 |
| American Res. Group | 11/26 – 11/29 | 27 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 3 | Romney +1.0 |
Table from Real Clear Politics, with an edit to insert the Ron Paul results from SV’s Dec. 8-10 poll.
First of all, where is the consensus? Currently, RCP puts the average at Huckabee by 8 over Romney. This is off quite a bit because of the dropping of an extremely Huck-friendly poll (Newsweek, which had Romney at 17…his lowest poll result in IA since May) and the inclusion of the first one to show
Huckabee out of the lead in about two weeks (and change). I’d peg the consensus at about a lead of 11 for Huckabee, possibly12.
Now that we’ve identified the consensus, who is close to this? The answer: Quad City Times (Huckabee+9), Hotline/FD (+13), and Rasmussen
(+16). Who’s out of line? Insider Advantage (Romney +3) and Strategic Vision (Huckabee +5). Going older, Newsweek is -way- off, while Mason-Dixon is in the ballpark…and I think that the two older polls are before the surge entered its recent phase (Huck had been climbing for about a month following some good debate performances and good press). But when seven polls show such a wide variety of opinion, something has to be up.
First of all, I suspect we have a case of one wonky poll with Newsweek. I’m inclined to throw them out because they’re so far away from their nearest neighbor. The same can be said of Romney’s lead in the other poll there. Neither makes too much sense, and with Iowa sampling as tricky as it is, both polls get tossed out in my mind. They’re between 3 and 5 standard deviations from the “consensus” here, making both suspect.
Second, Rasmussen might be off…he’s generally kinder to the right-wing candidates (Thompson and Huckabee), so that might be at work here. However, he’s within the consensus this time, and due to Iowa’s odd nature (and the fact that you’ve got to be willing to put in some serious time and energy to vote in the IA caucuses) he’s probably within the ballpark…and he’s probably within the MoE of the consensus for when he was polling.
Third, Strategic Vision. The pair of polls here are intriguing in that they show -zero- movement for Romney between the two polls, and drop the shift in support to Huck on the head of Rudy. That’s an odd way for traffic to flow, but given that the latest poll puts Rudy in sixth and the fact that Rudy has had his own set of trouble lately…not unbelievable. What’s more likely there is complex inter-candidate traffic that’s hard to follow (say voters move from Rudy to Romney while others move from Romney to Thompson…and a few more move from Thompson to Huckabee…while some just skip Thompson…you get the idea). My inclination here, though, is that SV’s botched its second poll there with a bad sample.
Ignoring SV’s poll, then, what have we? A surge, a peak, and a slow downtrend. Huckabee was never up by 22, and he’s not down by 3 (yet), either. But his surge, effectively an announcement boost (as has been noted elsewhere), has stopped. This has borne out in the national polls (where he’s stipped rising after that impressive jump…and started trending downwards in the polls, too, after peaking at just over 20% in the RCP average) as well as in Iowa. In short, Huckabee’s surge is over, and if he bleeds off a few more points, then we’re back to where we were a month ago…with another candidate piled onto the horde.
Ahh, the joys of when everyone’s ready for prime time…
Tags: Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Polls
